Jim Bryan: Allow me to start off by saying that often well reasoned analysis can differ. Look at all the different interpretations that have come along a couple of years after I first introduced my 1990 Rising Trading Channel and predicted the Naz Comp would revisit it in either late 99 or early 2000. And, would likely revisit the 74/75 RTC as well. Of course, after it became fairly obvious it seems every Tom, Dick and Harry suddenly "discovered" the 1990 RTC...<g>
Regarding the 74 Rising Megaphone resistance line (upper line), the correctness of my plot IMO is heavily support by the March 00 tag and reversal years after the defining points were in place. The first point being the 75 highs and the last adjustment for the second point was the 83 highs. While there is often merit to various trend line interpretations, time eventually proves one correct. It took a long time for that resistance line to be proven correct.
With regards to the support line of the 74 Rising Megaphone, I believe long-term trend lines and chart patterns start with a significant event. In this case it was a trend change, the end (bottom) of the early seventies correction. The first point being the 74 lows with the last adjustment for the second point being the 87 lows. Following 87 the support line’s influence can be seen in 90, 91, 92 and 94. However, IMO the April 2001 tag and pivot is the defining price action that established the line’s long-term influence.
Just as the adjusted 1990 support line has exerted little if any influence when compared to the support line for my 1990 RTC. The adjusted 1974 support line has yet to come into play. The support line you outlined has really not come into play since the 90 correction...
Of course, there are no absolutes in this profession we have chosen. I am married to nothing…<g>
Note: All my analysis is based on semi-log scale charts.
My WOW End of Day – COMPX (NASDAQ Composite) Daily Semi-log Chart
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Wider View
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My "Updated" COMPX charts. As pointed out with my previous posting of this chart, the Naz Comp topped as it tagged the resistance line of the 74 Rising Megaphone in March 2000. Notice where the Naz Comp pivoted in April, just above the support line of the 74 Megaphone. The only breach of the 74 Megaphone was in 1990 resulting in an Adj 74 Support line also plotted on the charts. If the 74 Megaphone holds, the bottom is in for the NAZ...
How to Interpret My Charts
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Regards,
LG |
