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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (106051)6/2/2001 5:38:07 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
In addition to all this deflationary prosperity you are talking about, there is a steady decline in demand for university graduates who are not in science or engineering. There's a shortage of bottom level help, e.g. in fast food joints, but so many companies are wallowing in red ink that there is a shortage of jobs above the bottom level. In this sense Japan is in a continuing recession. If you were age 22 and Japanese you might feel differently about the situation. It's still the case that manufacturing is threatened from two sides, from China and India on the low cost side, from the U.S., directly or indirectly on the technically advanced side. It's still the case that the education system is way behind that of Europe and North America, and not catching up. If the Japanese government attempted to get rid of any substantial fraction of their dollars Japanese exports would suffer badly. I do not get the feeling of the Japanese crisis being far from the truth. My Japanese friends all talk as if there were a crisis. Why do you think Koizumi is so popular? It's because he admits there's a crisis and he says strong new measures are needed., and some of these measures will require short term pain. This resonates with the Japanese population. What's not clear is how effective his government can be and how effective his party will allow him to be.
Compulsory retirement at age 60 is universal and some companies are trying to get rid of employees at 55, via packages which aren't very good. A lot of the pain of the crisis is concentrated on the most docile section of the population. Indeed it is the old and the youth who are conveying the considerable likelihood that the future won't be so bright nor the purchasing power so extensive.
Ominous indeed is the trend to marry late and have fewer children. Since children are a financial liability this also helps boost the standard of living for the time being. Japanese women have on the average 1.3 children. Since Japanese society cannot accept many immigrants, a future decline in the economy is being automatically prepared. Maybe the Japanese people can somehow escape all these threats but it will take something we haven't seen yet to do it.
Far from a crisis?
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