JEFFORDS'S REAL DAMAGE.
Retirement Plan
by Noam Scheiber
Post date 06.01.01 | Issue date 06.11.01
In the days following Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords's dramatic defection from the GOP, the capital was seized with talk that other Senate Republicans would follow. A headline in The Hotline, the daily summary of punditry and spin favored by political journalists, read "JEFFORDS II: WILL THERE BE OTHERS?" Slate.com speculated: "What if Jeffords persuaded his three fellow moderate Republicans from the Northeast--Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine--to go along?" Pundits wondered what the GOP could do, as Fox News's Mara Liasson put it, to "avert another party switch."
As it happens, the pundits were half-right. The Jeffords switch may inspire a wave of legislators to abandon the GOP Senate ranks--they just won't be party switchers. Instead, Jeffords's announcement could set off a series of retirements among Republican senators demoralized by life in the minority. And, with 20 Republicans up for reelection in 2002, compared with only 14 Democrats, that could spell Democratic Senate majorities for years to come.
Talk to any senator or Senate aide about returning to the minority, and the first thing he or she will say is that it's "not much fun." Since members of the majority party control committee chairmanships, they can largely ignore the minority when it comes to crafting legislation. As material manifestation of their impotence, senators of the minority party receive smaller committee staffs, smaller committee budgets, and cramped committee office space. Even when minority-party senators do get to help write legislation in committee (as the Democrats did in the 50-50 Senate), the majority leadership still decides which bills make it to the Senate floor. And when a bill is finally voted out of the Senate, it's the majority party that appoints the conferees who resolve differences between the House and Senate versions.
All this takes a toll. Just ask Bill Bradley, Sam Nunn, Paul Simon, Claiborne Pell, Howell Heflin, David Pryor, James Exon, and Bennett Johnston--eight Democrats who retired from the Senate in 1996, after the 1994 elections swung the chamber to the Republicans. As this list suggests, the senators most likely to call it quits after losing the majority aren't the marginal ones but those accustomed--through seniority and committee chairmanships--to getting their way.
o which GOP senators might decide to forgo life in the minority? A few names have already surfaced, and others will likely follow. Tennessee's popular incumbent, Senator Fred Thompson, had already raised eyebrows last month when, in announcing his decision not to run for governor, he suggested he would "probably" seek reelection to the Senate--an ambivalence that, combined with his lackluster fund-raising efforts, had Tennessee insiders predicting he'd give up his seat. Given that Thompson is already said to be frustrated by his lack of seniority--he is term-limited as head of the unsexy Government Affairs Committee and ranks next to last on the Finance Committee and the Select Committee on Intelligence--the Jeffords switch has intensified speculation about his departure. Says an aide to one Tennessee congressman, "[T]he word among the Tennessee delegation" is that Thompson is out. Democratic Representatives John Tanner and Harold Ford Jr. have already announced that they'll seek the seat if it's open.
Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Frank Murkowski was already talking about running for Alaska governor in 2002, a race many feel he would almost certainly win. Factor in the loss of a gavel, and the move looks all but assured. And though Alaska's state legislature recently passed a bill that would essentially allow Murkowski to appoint a successor to finish out his term, Alaska political observers believe current Democratic Governor Tony Knowles would have an excellent shot at picking off any Republican who defends the seat in 2004.
But New Mexico Republican Pete Domenici represents what could be the biggest blow to Republican chances of winning back the Senate. Budget Committee aides say Domenici lives for his duties as chairman but has become frustrated by having to toe what he perceives to be the administration's overly stingy line on spending. Throw in the loss of his chairmanship and reports of occasional health problems, and it's no surprise that rumors of an impending departure are suddenly swirling. Should that come to pass, most observers believe former Clinton Energy Secretary Bill Richardson would gladly abandon his widely anticipated gubernatorial bid and train his sights on the Senate instead. According to Armando Gutierrez, a New Mexico media consultant and former Gore campaign consultant, "It's a fairly open secret that [Richardson] would prefer to be in D.C."
Finally, there are those Republican senators who probably would have retired in 2002, with or without a majority, but who now have less of a reason than ever to stick it out. Chief among them is South Carolina's Strom Thurmond, who, by most accounts, has been a senator in name only these last few months (see "Strom?," by Michael Crowley, April 30). Some even suggest that the loss of the majority opens the door for Thurmond (on whom the recent late nights of tax cut wrangling took a serious physical toll) to call it quits before his term expires, leaving a Democratic governor to name his successor. Similarly, North Carolina's Jesse Helms would probably have been deterred from seeking a sixth term by age, ill health, and his term limit as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. But the loss of the majority makes it a near certainty. Though Helms holds his reelection cards close to his chest, he has taken few steps to prepare for reelection, commissioning only a single poll and a single fund-raising letter to date. His retirement could be great news for Democrats. While prospects of a North Carolina pickup took a hit last month when the top Democratic prospect, former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, elected to forgo the race, insiders suggest that former four-term North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt would find it difficult to stay out of a race that didn't include Helms.
After the Democratic retirements of 1996, one Democratic senator told The Hill newspaper that "I resent the hell out of" being abandoned. For the last few days, Jim Jeffords has been the sole object of conservative resentment. Next year, perhaps, he'll have company. Which offers Daschle a chance to preview how he'd handle them in 2004
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