Ian,
You're reading something into my posts which is simply is not there. If you want to defend Wall St. and its journal, that is your right.
In terms of investing, please don't give me the facts and logic line; you're looking in the rear-view and telling me what you saw...who cares? That's what I was saying, the disconnect is obvious - "who's right and why?" is the more important question. Until management succeeds or fails in securing its financial position, everything else is speculation driven by agenda. I don't care if you accept this premise or not - please spare me the diatribe about my investing approach since in all honesty you don't know the first thing about it.
With respect to the accounting write-off, they only need to confirm that the terms of the prior deal were extremely unfavorable, given the changes in market conditions, which they clearly are - the market validated this by assigning $1/share value. They don't need to believe anything about the intrinsic value - I'm not sure where that's coming from. Going forward, this prevents no action to make a deal with 360; I did not predict that this would happen, I just wondered how you were so sure it would not - which you answered, and I don't agree with. IMHO, a new deal with much more favorable terms for Alcatel is possible, though perhaps not plausible. I don't think I ever stated that I thought there was a strong likelihood of any such deal. More likely the money will come from upstream if the controlling owners decide the equity is worth trying to salvage - this is the real issue that 360 equity investors are looking at. The temptation to wipe the debt off the books is tempered by the desire for control of these assets. How many are in a position to value 360's assets; bondholders may have good info about 360's end markets but they still don't have management's insider info.
I respect your right to not think 360 is a good investment; please respect others rights to make up their own minds rather than following THE WORD from Wall St.
Regards, Rob
BTW Bloomberg is speculating today that Cisco is looking at acquiring Alcatel or Marconi. Evidently the consolidation in telecom is progressing... |
