Caution and concern are the watchwords of the day. The front page of my local paper (the Fairfax Journal, which is a small paper and thus tends to carry features written by syndicates) fronts two stories about matters of economic concern.
"Economic gains and losses - Income disparities grew in the last decade, study says" - a report released by the Congressional Budget Office shows that affluent Americans made major economic gains in the 1990's while poor households have essentially remained the same. The richest 20% saw a 50% increase in after tax, after inflation gains. Not so good for the median 20% of income earners, only a 10% increase in after tax earnings after inflation, but that isn't too bad, I'd say. The increase in illegitimate births and single mothers raising kids can't be helping the demographics for the poor - the bottom 20% saw an increase in household income of approximately $100.
"Falling Birth Rates Forecast Economic Trouble" - in Japan, 25% of the population is older than 60. The country with the lowest birth rate, however, is Italy, 1.18 births per female. Spain, 1.2, Germany, 1.3, Japan, 1.4, France, 1.6, Canada, 1.6, United Kingdom, 1.7. USA is 2.0, because of our more liberal immigration policies. Non-Hispanic whites in the USA have a 1.8 rate. The ratio of workers to retirees is currently 3 to 1 in developed countries. At one time in the USA it was greater than 40 to 1.
If the current Japanese birth rate continues, there will be just 500 Japanese in the year 3000. The previously productive and saving Japanese are now elderly, and are spending less, preserving capital, and draining the resources of the younger generation which must support the social and economic programs for the elderly.
I wonder what will be the long term effect of the Chinese "one child" policy? |
