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Strategies & Market Trends : Drillbits & Bottlerockets
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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (14066)6/6/2001 12:51:46 AM
From: Augustus Gloop  Read Replies (1) of 15481
 
I think we'll find that his "clip" is still quite full. How low can rates go? Ask the Japanese. People are all over the map with predictions of no cut to the most common view of a .25 cut in June. While I can't claim to know the answer my gut tells me we see another 50 basis point cut. Although much of the recent data I have seen does not support this view I can't help but think the fed feels the pressure to send at least one final blow to this nasty bear and weak economy. Whether sustainable or not, a bear rally would free up a TON of cash that consumers could spend. IMO, a market rally is almost the only hope the fed has to get this economy pumping even if it's only for a short while. To disappoint in June would surely send the NASDAQ within striking distance of new lows right about the time it already hits the annual "news void season" of August through October. This would result in new lows instead of a double bottom and would further weaken confidence in the market in general. If the above scenario takes place I would look for NASDAQ lows in the range of the October of '98 lows of 1357.

EDIT

I might add that at current levels we have yet to see ANY impact of earnings warnings and believe me, they're coming.
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