Intraday Investments STALK LIST for Wednesday, June 6 2001
Last night we introduced a new format for the STALK LIST, but our view of the market was simply… WRONG. We were surprised by the modest gap up and even more by the runup -- but took our losses in stride early in the session, and spent the rest of the day basically trading our brains out just to get even on the day. This happens occasionally, but we have found that over time the great profits from trading overnights more than makes up for those days. And making sure that the losing days turn into breakevens, or small losers is a great thing for the equity curve.
Setups (below) are organized by sector. Each sector index is commented on along with the stocks that have setup within that sector. All setups are identified and described if ever so briefly. Soon we'll have a detailed diagram/ explanation for each setup on our website.
The recommend practice is to study each setup, and program those you're comfortable with into an alert program. Soon, we'll also be emailing out pre-programmed alert program setup files (and an EXCEL version of the stalk sheet) to our Premium-level customers. We are also looking into the mechanics of having a faxed version of the spreadsheet format. In the morning, as soon as each alert level is hit users will have an audible/on-screen alarm as each Stalked Stock trades into it's alert level. Finding setups doesn't get any easier or better than that, especially at 6:00 in the morning! Of course, we'll be analyzing each setup as it triggers in the room, making various judgment calls about if/when to enter depending upon how the overall market/sector action is playing out at that time.
These are likely scenarios for the sectors/setups and we get them right a good deal of the time. But remember, each sector (and the market as a whole) can go wherever it pleases tomorrow (as evidenced by today’s action!). No one can predict to know what the market, or even an individual issue will do in advance with any real certainty beyond a statistical edge. So always use stops and remember than in the market, anything can (and will) happen. Best sure to take advantage of "being nimble" by re-assessing the validity of all your setup criteria as the individual setups are triggered; don't just jump in blindly. And above all, be ready to take responsibility for all your trades; we would be the first to tell you that you won't get very far by just trying to follow someone else's setups blindly. We’ve noticed over the years that the successful traders, regardless of their point in the learning curve, are characterized by being willing to truly take full responsibility for their own trading, regardless of where they get their setups.
Good trading Wednesday!
Steve, Deron, & Ed
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sector Symbol Name L/S(Long/Short) Alert_Price
Type of SETUP/notes
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Biotech $BTK.X, BBH Biotech Index, HOLDR
We are anticipating a reversal in the Biotech sector after a strong, 4-day runup
Biotech IMCL Imclone Systems S <55.2
Sector reversal, will monitor intraday setup. Note likely climactic volume on Tuesday
Biotech IDPH Idec Pharm. S <76.0
Sector reversal, will monitor intraday setup
Biotech AMGN Amgen S <70.6
Sector reversal, will monitor intraday setup
Biotech CEPH Cephalon S < 68.14
Short on test and failure of double top. caution, wait for the $BTK.X to reverse…
Biotech CHIR Chiron S <56.45
Sector reversal, will monitor intraday setup. Note likely climactic volume on Tuesday
Biotech GILD Gilead S <57.90
Failed double top with Doji reversal. Gilead may be one of the first Bio's to give it back
Biotech FRX Forest Labs S <74.82 "One of Dr. Fibo's
“Fat Piggies""; showing weakness. Put in a nice reversal candle Tues.
Drugs $DRG.X Drug Index 4 days up; approaching double-top.
Drugs JNJ Johnson & Johnson L >102.50 Long on breakout of double-top.
Telecom $XTC.X Telecoms Index Nice rebound in Telecoms Tuesday
Telecom TDS Telephone & Data Sys L >107.20
Breakout play. Long above 66.35 but stock must hold the 200ma on 60min; if stock can't hold 200ma at 66.35 get out. We could also fade this one on a big gap up. Set alarm for 106.80 but needs to break out. Caution, trades a little thin.
Telecom CMVT Comverse Technology L >66.35
Breakaway gap follow-thru play
Telecom OPWV Openwave L >44.75
Rebound play. Great Volume Tuesday
Software "$GS0.X, SWH" "Software Index, HOLDR"
Software CPWR Compuware L >11.80
Breakout play. Buy the open above 11.80 but don't buy a big gap up.
Software MSFT Microsoft L >72.20 Breakout play.
Buy the open above 72.20 but don't buy a big gap up.
Software TTWO Take Two Interactive S <21.91
Short on Gap up as long as <21.91. We may need to stalk this one
Semiconductor $SOX.X Semi Index
Nice rebound in the SOX Tuesday, should follow through into Wed"
Semiconductor QLGC Qlogic L >55
Pullback rebound in uptrend. Buy above 55.00 at open as long as stock does not gap up more than 1.00
Semiconductor VTSS Vitesse L >27.50
Pullback rebound. only with strong SOX
Semiconductor AMCC Applied Micro Circuits L >20.60
Pullback rebound. only with strong SOX
Networkers $NWX.X Networking Index
Nice rebound in the networkers Tuesday may follow through into Wednesday
Networkers BRCD Brocade Comm L >45 Rebound play off of pullback.
Networkers EXTR Extreme Networks L >35 Rebound play off of pullback.
Networkers ALA Alcatel L >26.40
Parisian networking behemoth may be bottoming Rebound play, don't overstay your welcome.
Networkers FNSR Finisar L >18
Gap is filled, should move with the sector.
Brokers $XBD.X Broker Index
Nice rebound in the Brokerage Sector Tues
Brokers MWD Morgan Stanley Merrill L >66.55 with strong XBD.X
Banks $BKX.X Bank Index Banks are trying to break out
Banks BAC Bank of America L >60.30 Breakout Play; with strong BKX.X
Dr. Fibo's "Fat Piggies":
Keep an eye on IDPH, CHIR, ELN, SNPS, ITWO, FCEL
===
Remember: RISK MANAGEMENT is the essence of trading.
=== |
