actually i think i took that link from this thread. heh, now you are sending it back to them. anyway how about another interesting statistic that shows how overbought the market got in 1998 when it topped out.
from the worden report april 8, 1998.
Another chart, perhaps even more interesting, depicts the percentage of stocks at least two standard deviations above their moving averages (T2111). Such stocks are "overbought," virtually by definition. At any given time, well under 50 percent of all common stocks are in such a position. In fact, in 1987, leading up to the crash, the highest level reached was a hair under 29 percent. Such a lofty level was not seen again until December of 1996, when the percentage shot up to 34 percent. After a pullback, the percentage then shot up to the unprecedented level of 51 percent. That is, over half of all common stocks were actually seriously overbought at the same time last summer. This milestone was not resolved in a fit of technical exhaustion as might be expected. The tension continues to exist. After a comparatively mild pullback, the percent began to increase again. It now stands at 32 percent, decisively above the highest point reached in 1987. This statistic reflects the blowoff type action in many individual stocks that we've been expressing concern about. Check T2111 on a nine-day chart, zoom 2. |
