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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: maceng2 who wrote (107058)6/6/2001 10:23:07 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (3) of 436258
 
o.k., now i get the context...forget my pm query. as it were, i'm still short it...it didn't make it to my stop, so far (came very close though). all indications are that RE markets are indeed weakening precipitously in several key areas. turnover is falling dramatically in some areas, and what has started out as one of the fastest and biggest jumps in commercial RE vacancies in a long time has now spread to residential RE, in terms of objects spending a long time on the market before buyers are found, and no more overbidding...on the contrary, prices are in retreat (not everywhere, and it is necessary to look past the surface stats...which in many cases are distorted by a small number of high priced exclusive residences being sold).
the market doesn't yet see that as a potential problem for the conveyers of mortgages - the focus seems still to be on rates primarily (and there is some logic to that, as the biggest systemic danger to the daisy chain comes from rates). btw., the timing of this weakening of property markets is in keeping with past post bubble experiences: it has begun roughly one year after the stock market top.
i see little hope for June puts though, since they expire next week. and it remains to be seen if i wasn't early again regarding FNMs stock, since it currently is testing the upper end of its recent trading range and could break out. in that case i'd be stopped out and would return to wait and see mode.
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