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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (43275)	6/7/2001 12:20:33 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) of 54805

I think macro considerations need to be incorporated in order to guarantee some degree of capital preservation. With the advantage of hindsight of the last year and some, this is easy to say, but I for one would like to see some specific theories put to the test. My guess is that many of the simple solutions which have been offered would end up with lower total returns than simply hanging in there since they would miss even more of the upside than the downside. Just speculation, mind you, but we have yet to see a timing strategy prove itself. While I heartily agree that there is value in paying attention to more than there is in the manual, I am not at all convinced that there is any dependable criteria for selling which outperforms ... it may be good for peace of mind, but that is quite a different issue. Buying, maybe, given that there is usually more than one attractive investment on offer, so picking a time to invest in one when it is on a down cycle seems like a stronger play. But, my guess is that the real emotion here is behind when to get out. The scope of the fm is woefully inadequate with respect to portfolio management. Has anyone ever pretended that it was a guide to portfolio management? Different folks, different needs, different portfolios. People in certain positions might choose to go 100% gorilla. People in other positions might decide to accept greater risk and the potential for greater reward by investing earlier in the TALC. Some might play it safe by having 5 years in cash. Some might even be so sophisticated as Sir Lyre in having a "layered" approach to companies at different points in the cycle. All of which is a perfectly valid area of study and council, but doesn't seem to me to have a lot to do with Geoffrey Moore.

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