Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4406)	6/7/2001 2:54:07 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Mq, You say: Except that there are large differences. Japan's 1980s excitement was obviously simply a bubble. The New Paradigm is a major paradigm shift and paradigm shift happens. Japan's excitement was based on the real perception that they were winning the economic competition of the age. They were bringing INTC to near bankruptcy, they were decimating the rest of the American semi-conductor industry and they were also taking over in ship building, consumer electronics and a few other industries. Their bubble started out as a sane reaction to a real paradigm shift. This is absolutely no different from what has happened in the US. The Internet was going to change everything. It has certainly changed lifestyles and in this instance made it possible for me to easily communicate with a crazy kiwi, but that doesn't change economics. That is what killed the Japanese bubble and that is what is killing the US bubble. There ain't a hell of a lot of distinction to be drawn between the two. Except maybe we in the US cut our losses a bit quicker. But we'll have to wait and see about that a little longer. The Black Plague was a paradigm shift. The industrial revolution was a paradigm shift. Is the Internet another one? Probably. But it isn't a slam dunk change. It's more of a race across an crevass-filled glacier where the nimble survive and prosper and the rest simply drop out of sight. Sort of like the GSTRF disappearance today. So long, been good to know ya, now..... Sayonara

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