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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 36.15

-0.6%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Road Walker who wrote (136877)	6/7/2001 9:02:04 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) of 186894

Re: after an expected 14% decline in 2001, the SIA sees 20.5% growth in 2002 and 25% growth in 2003. Ouch! 20% growth times .85 (after this years decline), just about equals 1. So 2002 sales are estimated to be about the same as 2000 sales. But there will have been a huge increase in FAB capacity over that period, so the 25% growth in 2003 would do little or nothing to help margins. I can see why AMD isn't spending money on additional unit capacity targeted any earlier than end of 2003 or 2004. What will happen to Intel after it finishes spending the remainder of its net assets on new FABs all coming on line just-in-time for the 2001-2003 semi glut? And its competitor still has .13 copper capacity with SOI, while it only has plain .13 copper. And its competitor will be ramping new, more advanced FAB capacity as the semi cycle turns up in 2004, when Intel has its capex hands tied by $20 Billion worth of undepreciated, older FAB space and no remaining cash. Ouch!

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