I'm also suspicious of PARL, Crossy.
There was a PARL thread several years back. The concern then - especially after a negative Forbes article - was the ownership position of the CEO, and his deals and self-serving with Perfumania (?) which he or his brother also controlled. (I am saying this from memory - and I might have it wrong.) Anyway, as I read your post, it appears that if there were a problem, it's been resolved. That's to the good.
You've said "I calculated a P&L "potential" model and arrived at a high-end quarerly EPS 0,20 that could be achieved by just a 10% increase in revenues. With consumer spending strong, this seems to be outright possible for the total year."
The product should be easy and cheap to manufacture. With most sales coming for the Christmas season, and most purchases made by women for their husbands and/or boyfriends and/or other males.
It's the repeat sales that I always wondered about. Not too many times does the subject of cologne come up with my buddies. Not too many times in the past few years have I felt the need for a new bottle of cologne. That could be saying something about me and my friends grooming habits, maybe -g-, but I'd say in the competitive marketplace (brand image, fashion of the season), for PARL to raise revenues (if they do it without smoke/mirrors) - that will be difficult.
"...worth noting should be that DFA (Dimensional Fund Advisors) almost doubled their holding in both: ALU and PARL. "
I'd say not worth noting. DFA is a strange fund imo. I'm one for lots of diversification, but these guys are ridiculous. They own pages of stuff. I'll defer to you or anybody else here who's got better knowledge, but it seems to me these folks are indexers of some kind. They're not buying on fundamentals but rather on some sector style. You will see them owning all sorts of junk that nobody or very few other funds have. I'm not saying they are wrong to buy PARL, only that I ignore DFA anytime I see them with an ownership position in a stock I'm investigating.
PARL might work out. I wouldn't want it to be a significant portion of my portfolio or my only value stock.
Jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times before.
Paul Senior |
