an ST turn could be quite close, since we have a full moon (explains some of the craziness probably). i have actually the 7th the 11th and the 15th as ST pivots, whereby stan harley pointed out in the meantime that a 54 td NAZ trading cycle is supposed to have a bottom on the 11th (so this is a date arrived at with more than one methodology). during the bear stage the important lows were all located along this cycle. he thinks however that the rally will accelerate from there and last for quite a while yet.
i'm not so sure about that. i have had June 18 - 26 as a potential topping area for quite a while, and the sentiment would support that. also, end of June/beginning of July, a Puetz window opens (another one opens end of July/beginning of August). my favorite date for a top is June 26 at this time. Aug 5 is another big date, i'm not sure though if a high or a low. i see two alternatives: either late June is THE top of the bounce, or it becomes a typical late July top (as has happened for several years now). for now i'm going with June...and a down July. then starting from Aug 5 an up-down/up-down sequence that ends in late Sept. at a secondary, lower high...followed by a traditional October bloodbath.
well have to assess things as the late June dates come closer - how the p/c's, Rydex ratios, cots, TRIN , etc. look as we approach them. i've used the 18th to 26th window because the 06/18 is a Bradley turn (those are often imprecise, either a bit early or a bit late) and it's also the day after expiration (if expiration week is up, delta hedge supply should hit the market the following week) and 06/19 is a fibo date too.
and while i'm spouting arcana, let me mention that the planetary constellation (in astrological terms a Jupiter/Uranus trine) on June 19 is exactly the same that was present during the '87 BK. furthermore, thanks to prophet of doom, Michael Henry, i know that on the 4th of July the US will reach what he calls the 'death angle' (interestingly one day before the lunar eclipse of the Puetz eclipse pair). let me explain: here is Gann's square of 9:
xmlworks.com
what is of interest here are the numbers that occur at the 45 degree angle - and the 7th 45 degree angle coincides with the squares of the odd numbers. 7 is the death number. 7 out from the center is 15^2, or 225. add 225 years to July 4, 1776 and you arrive at July 4, 2001. Henry interprets that as the US 'death date', the date where the dollar, the economy, etc. all hit the skids irrevocably. should be a great time to be short, if he's right...-bg-
please not to take too seriously.... |
