Mike, I am not fighting, I will be back on board if we breach 2388 with volume and expansion of new highs, and lose very little. The reason I believe we are entering a lengthy period like the the 1966/1982 have been explained a number of times, it has to do with "earnings catching up with valuations" over a long period. I mentioned that when I described the bear market I expected last year and this year in a post on the MDD thread during April 2000 (and in that post, I was too optimistic as to how far the post May advance and subsequent declines this year will get us). It also has to do with an intrinsic world wide over capacity, and I am not talking about semi's which could be resolved within 18 months or so, I am talking about excess capacity in basic commodities like steel, aluminum, copper, automobiles (WW capacity at 80 MM cars annually while demand in good times is at best 55 MM) and even crude (which is artificially capped by OPEC). Excess liquidity can rapidly get this market to excess valuations, and I think it eventually will, but I do not see the momentum right here that you are talking about, yes MSFT had a breakout, so did IBM two weeks ago, just to fall back under $117, if there was real momentum we would have had many more new highs, we have half as many new high today when the Naz stands a little higher than on April 29th than we had on April 20th. That is not momentum, that is a narrowing of the advance, IMTO. I am not going to even bring up the problems in credit worthiness, the collapse of full sectors and the weakening of balance sheetys at the bank that loaned the money that went to money heaven.
Zeev |
