CALIFORNIA'S ENERGY CRISIS
It's looking better on energy front
Conservation and more available electricity are easing threat of routine summer blackouts
Although nobody is saying the crisis is over, officials are revising their forecasts
CONSERVATIONMORE POWER PLANTS OUT OF STATE SOURCES BY STEVE JOHNSON AND JOHN WOOLFOLK
Mercury News
After months of pessimistic predictions that California was facing a summer of blackouts, the energy outlook is brightening.
Increased conservation, new power plants and more electricity imports are easing the threat of routine summer outages.
``I feel good,'' said Bob Therkelsen, deputy director of the California Energy Commission, crediting a crash program to speed power-plant construction and persuade people to use less electricity. ``Overall, that objective of increasing supply and reducing demand is happening.''
While no experts say the crisis is over -- and some warn the situation could quickly worsen -- state energy analysts and some industry officials are revising their dire forecasts.
Things certainly didn't look good two months ago. Back then, power plant breakdowns and routine repairs had made nearly 15,000 megawatts of power unavailable in California -- about a third of what the state normally uses. And Gov. Gray Davis was warning that by May and early June, the state could be ravaged by blackouts.
But a lot has changed since then. On Wednesday, only about 6,000 megawatts was unavailable because of plant repairs. Other than two blackout days -- on May 7 and May 8 -- last month and the first part of June have had relatively few power problems. Moreover, appeals to conserve appear to be sinking in. On Sunday, state officials announced an 11 percent drop in electrical use last month compared with May last year.
Not wasting power is especially crucial, said Richard Grix, an analyst with the California Energy Commission.
``It's really been the people who have turned up the thermostats, put in the fluorescent energy-efficient light bulbs and run their dryers at night,'' he said. ``It's all the efforts of people trying to conserve electricity that have made the outlook a lot better. And that still has to happen'' to avert blackouts this summer.
James Macias, executive director of the San Jose-based power plant developer Calpine Corp., said he expected fewer blackouts and lower electricity prices than predicted this summer because of the number of new plants coming online.
``I'm optimistic things are improving,'' he said in a New York briefing.
News from Northwest
California's prospects for buying electricity from other states appear to be better, too.
The state normally relies on such imports for about one-fourth of the power it uses, with much of it coming from the Pacific Northwest. In recent months, California officials had feared those supplies might dry up this summer, because a drought had reduced the amount of water needed to drive the region's hydroelectric dams. But those concerns have eased.
``We're not out of the woods yet,'' concluded a study last week by the Northwest Power Planning Council. But since its last analysis of available power supplies in March, it added, ``the situation has improved considerably.''
Officials at the Bonneville Power Administration, the giant Portland, Ore., federal hydropower agency, sounded a similarly sunny note. They said agreements by aluminum and other major industries to reduce their power usage has made more power available for California.
Bonneville, with 29 dams and a nuclear plant, generates 8,000 megawatts and is obligated to deliver 11,000 megawatts. Typically, it buys the difference on the market. So with power prices soaring, Bonneville asked the industries to reduce demand by 3,000 megawatts or face price increases up to 250 percent.
So far, the companies have committed to drop 1,200 megawatts, which means there is that much more electricity available for other customers, including California, said Bonneville spokesman Mike Hansen. ``We're not out there competing with everyone else for that power,'' he said. ``We're feeling pretty good about this summer.''
Help from the weather
Even the weather appears to be cooperating.
To be sure, May was hotter than normal and temperatures are expected to be unusually hot across much of the Southwest. That could drive up electricity use for air conditioning in places like Arizona, potentially limiting the Southwest's ability to ship power here. But the long-term forecast for California looks normal, which means ``no apocalyptic forecast here and that's good,'' said Walter Snell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey.
Such guarded optimism about the state's power supplies comes as electricity prices have unexpectedly fallen to levels not seen since last spring before California's energy crisis erupted.
Market experts say prices reflect lower power-plant fuel costs, more imports and increased conservation, but caution that prices, like the blackout threat, are likely to again rise this summer.
Words of caution
Arthur O'Donnell, editor of California Energy Markets, said a big reason that hydroelectric supplies have increased in the Pacific Northwest is that the snow has melted a month earlier than usual. While that unexpected surge of power has helped bring down electricity prices across the West, he said, it could cause those same supplies to peter out earlier than expected this summer.
Others warn that a sudden rash of power-plant breakdowns or an unexpected spell of hot weather could easily push California back to the brink of blackouts. In addition, they fear some generators might withhold power to drive up prices, although suppliers have denied doing that.
Gov. Davis' spokesman Steve Maviglio said it's wise not to take any predictions about what might happen this summer too seriously.
``They're all educated guesses,'' Maviglio said. ``Nobody knows for sure.'' As a result, he added, ``We're preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.'' |
