Thread,
CNBC just reported that Prudential has upgraded the whole semiconductor sector, saying they see a turnaround in 2002 and expect 35-50% gains in stock prices. The reporters then proceeded to mock the wording of the statement. Nevertheless, you've gotta think it'll be a good semi day as lemmings follow the analysts.
I do have a thought that I'd be interested in others' feedback on: A couple of days ago, someone on the thread (can't recall who - Charles R?) made what is basically the following argument: There isn't a whole lot of upside to AMD for the following reasons - If AMD has superior technology, INTC will fight like hell to protect market share by putting unbearable pressure on prices, so that both AMD and INTC lose, but INTC would be willing to do that to prevent further market share erosion. If INTC has better technology, AMD loses on performance, so INTC does well on pricing and AMD lags behind. In either scenario, INTC holds the trump card - the upshot is that given the dynamics involved, this sector just isn't the place to be, as other places have clearer winning possibilities. Despite the fact that I'm VERY long AMD and slightly long INTC, it's haunting in terms of that the idea makes a fair amount of sense to me. I'd be interested in what others think, if you care to reply.
jamok99 |
