Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (91374)	6/8/2001 9:56:48 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

["At what level would you consider going long the OSX?"] George; I think most people are missing my point ! ... I would NOT consider going LONG - at ANY LEVEL; untill: 1. The API AND the AGA supply build trends reverse. 2. We see signs of the US AND the other global economies improving. I'm short 3 OS stocks - SII BJS & CAM (3 momenteum money fav's) for a trading short; but I am longterm "net short" on a Nat Gas E&P basket. I made my initial entry for a 1/3rd position on that NG short - that I look to make a portfolio weighted play on any & all further strength. The OSX may have another upside leg to it and I like that next upside leg as a major LT SHORT entry opp vs a long-side trading opp from this pullback. Short term; all of the risk is on the downside for the OSX; it's not in missing a run up to substially new highs; as the OSX can NOT make substantial new highs in this environment - can't; no possible way - period ! NOT into a slowing global economy with supply builds - no risk of missing any move - none. The next "Big & Easy Money trade" - is in catching the cyclical rollover; not another 110-135ish trading range, or a run to OSX 150ish imo. Basically;OSXwise - I'll wait to short new highs (150ish), or short into further downside momenteum if crude, or gas prices start to rollover rapidly - which I think they will; unless APA & API trends reverse quickly & dramatically. I'm neutral/bearish on the OSX- because as a short; support may be found at 100 - 115ish for now - so there's no real major upside "yet" (on the downside, being short).... but I am 20 Ft Tall & Kryptoniteproof Bearish on the Nat Gas pureplay E&P's (VBG) - as the energy specialy funds are right now rolling out of these early cycle - commodity price pureplays & rotating to later cycle plays - refiners, integrateds & the majors - along with offshore drilling, seismic , offshore deepwater service & const. This was a "trade the traders" play - knowing what they would do & realizing that the early indicator of the intitial APA & API builds would accelerate their move potentially. Shorting & staying short and adding shorts on any AND all further upside in the Nat Gas E&P's is a chip shot..... the best risk vs reward trade in the entire oilpatch imo. I also think the NAZ is a great short at 2400-2500... allmost there, but not quite... this semi rally is insane... Intel guides below the midline of their recently lowered guidance & the sector rallies ? ... listen to Trans Switch ? to Juniper ? HandSpring just cut guidance in half, cut in HALF ! ... virtually all of tech's 2H '01 and 1H 2002 numbers are STILL much, much too high. We had a Cap Ex & Credit bubble & rate cuts and tax rebates won't cure that... nothing will... valuations are STILL much, much too high & we're in a corporate profit recession that a Strong Dollar just keeps on exacerbating & Europe is now rolling over economically... so that offset to a weak US market no longer exists... tic-toc~ for Bear part deux ! On Gold; patiently re-enter on the pullback; but don't chase each small move; 1/3rd here; 1/3rd at XAU 50 if seen & save the last 1/3rd for a re-test of the lows - XAU 41ish. If you sold & took at least partial profits atop the recent move; any reloads near XAU 50ish are great longterm holds... I can't imagine that anyone who buys core holds like GOLD HGMCY NEM, or HM; at XAU 50ish for a reasonable 15-20%ish portfolio weighting here; will not be rewarded LT and should be rewarded mid-term rather well imo. We're still re-flating the economy & Greenspan is going to have to keep printing Fiat Dollars & flooding the world with them... has to; nothing else can work - it's a catch-22 for the US dollar "ultimately" - with "ultimately" being the keyword that requires patience for the goldstocks. Our day will come in gold/silver stocks; it's merely a matter of "how much" you want to own & not on owning them...

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