Interesting point, I think....Please anyone pick apart:
If you look back to January, April, and May.....the market showed strength early in the month, and, in particular, as the market got close to option ex.....in ALL 3 MONTHS....the market showed weakness and/or topping soon after...
In the case of January....a further week of range-bound trading (post options ex), and then big down...
In April, almost immediate dump post-option ex for a few days, and then recovery (and beginning of month up cycle) beginning end of April..
In May, there was a big up day on the Monday POST options ex....but Tuesday brought the big volume grind day, and we soon went hard lower again....
So I guess I am saying that options ex has proven a good point to look for a top/topping in several cases over the past few months....and therefore my expectation that we'll see some up next week...perhaps reinforcing a double-top or a lower high at 2264 yesterday....
please pick apart my argument, anyone.. |
