PALMs are going for $105, very affordable ENTRY into this marketspace, the PRICE BARRIER to entry is lifted in this, or any other PRICE WAR and the company with the market dominant position, which PALM clearly has in the hand held PDA marketspace almost always wins, and in the process obtains more marketshare, more loyal BRAND customers, all due to the increased CRITICAL MASS....bang exploding the virtues of PALM devices across new segments of the economy. Expect a V recovery for PALM, seems now is the up LEG of the first climb to the right up the V recovery. As for the "rest" of the economy, its the synchronicity I meant, that will be eventual, not a long time, its getting sorted and organized and lined up and sequenced, all ducks getting in their rows now, then looking back a year or 2 from now at a MACRO rather than MICRO graph, it will be seen as a whole V recovery, I do not expect a U or bathtub or L shaped recovery. OIL is key, and for that OPEC is making US wait another month, and IRAQ like it or not is playing the key supply variable in that equation. Of course OIL should not impact on PALM sales much anyway, since PALM is way over to the HIGH TECH side of the entire supply chain.
And what I meant by supply drive and demand driven was OVER or ARTIFICIALLY HIGH AND TEMPORARY driven or lopsided supply or demand driven, out of balance, with surely price being fluctuated accordingly, I have no problem with basic capitalism supply/demand/price. I meant there is an imbalance when either supply or demand DRIVES the market TEMPORARILY which I thought was implied. As you understand, temporary shortages are usually filled, at higher prices surely, this stimulates new supply, competitition, oversupply, lower prices, balance. That is what I meant by FAIR PRICE not temporary price, since all temporary prices are fair at the time aren't they, but equalized prices over time, where the temporary surge in price is unfair relative to the long term. The PALM and HANDspring PRICE WARS and inventory supplies may shoot the prices down, TEMPORARILY, but then there will be a shortage as production slows, which knowing these companies, is just what I predict will happen YET AGAIN by about christmas or Q1. Despite earnings drops and spikes in the short term, overall, the equalized long term, everyone pretty much understands that they will distribute ALL their inventory. My point was that in doing so, there is a "goodwill" benefit of creating more USERS, more BRAND customer loyalty, all due to the increased distribution even at lower prices NOW of PALM devices during the PRICE WAR, it is just creating NEW customers which is what you expect from a CRITICAL MASS approach, BRAND, BRAND, BRAND, and my prediction is that PALM will still dominate all marketspaces in the PDA marketspace and GAIN MARKETSHARE when the PRICE WARS END, declaring PALM the victor again, with HANDspring in 2nd and all the rest far far behind.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
