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Strategies & Market Trends : KA Investing
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To: Robert Scott who started this subject6/9/2001 7:25:53 AM
From: Robert Scott   of 13
 
We will have a strong recovery in Q4 2001 and in 2002. Here's why:

1. Fed Funds decreases in 2001 will kick in big time.
2. Money supply growth in the first 1/2 of this year will kick in.
3. Oil will drop to around $18/barrel in 2002 - Production increases in April 2000 show up in increased inventories 1 year later which drive down the price of oil. Slowing economy will only exacerbate this. (See Barrons this week)

The key is to avoid a recession for Q2 and Q3. If we can do this, then I think this scenerio plays out perfectly. I think Greenspan has it right - confidence is the key issue.

Unfortunately, if this scenerio plays out and we avoid recession, it means interest rate hikes are very likely and maybe as soon as late Q4 but certainly next year - hopefully a gradual climb to a leveling off.

I believe Nasdaq stocks will begin a steady 1 to 1 1/2 year climb following Q2 which should be the low water mark for most tech companies. Comparisons will be very good beginning in Q1 of next year for at least 3 quarters.
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