Doug and loan: my list posted last week:
Message 15884963
To that list, I also own and think you can pick off Anatolia, and CBD. I own FWR, but it's nearly doubled and may be a hold now, but watch the next Clarence Stream results. My home run this year has been MR, which I'd probably rate a hold now. I like ARQ in the PGM's, and they've just consolidated Platreef. And I'm in on the intriguing PLY play (zinc-silver). I own some NPG at half this price, but it's probably still a buy, have some NSU and have been murdered in TVX, but you have to be prepared to also lose bets in this arena. My pot is still intact, and I'm actually up a little bit. But, to be honest I would have done as well in T-bills although that wouldn't have been as much fun. I am rather amazed that there hasn't been a buyout in my well diversified portfolio since Pangea, and admit frustration. I think the seniors as a result are facing big trouble ahead.
IMO, the smarter folks here are attracted to plays that have some, or a substantial degree of discovery in the bag, and are almost always top quartile cost wise (below or well below 175 cash cost with reasonable capex: sometimes you have to guess). Even though I'm a PM and resource bull, I'm not just betting on the come and I'm very focused on cost structures. Usually these are fairly advanced explorations. I know historically juniors have largely been about some promotion/ramp/ anticipation cycle. This is not that type of market. This is more for vultures and venture capital types. I'm never going to pay anything for an outfit with some stakes, a few grab samples and an advertising budget. I'm always trying to do valuation calcs on deposits (I call it the threshold, or crossing a threshold)and share structures. I even pay attention to details like warrants and options, or if the company is constantly giving away undervalued stock, or mgt drawing unreasonable salaries. And to be honest I think alot of discussion on these threads fails to do this, and instead focuses on "glass half empty" stuff. The real issue is: are you buying an EVOLVING economic deposit, a future mine and under what scenario, and what are you paying for it? |
