NV, congrats, your post made it to the "cool posts" list. I am not sure why, since it seems your assumptions did not work out, JNPR closed well under $39, and for those long the stock, selling in pre market would have been the best bet. JNPR has been weak through the recent rally, and frankly, if that first shot over the market's bow last Friday, is just the beginning of the decline you and I disagree on, then JNPR could actually test and breach the March lows under $29. If that were to happen, don't be surprised to find JNPR in the very high teens low 20' range by the time this decline is over.
Zeev, I don't know why I made it on the cool posts either. I would say that the trading halts affected peoples' buying..it is a psychological factor. Monday should be more of a real indicator.
JNPR is just in the wrong sector. This sector has its leaders like Nortel hitting 2 year lows. We already know what happened to Lucent. Now Cisco appears to be getting strong but in overall weak market conditions.
I would disagree over the predictions for for this stock getting to teens. I was listening to some analyst on TV say that it would be a good buy under 30..he does not have it rated a buy. When analysts make such comments, people generally end up buying it before it hits those levels. That is the pattern I noticed with recently when it was in the 20s.
High teens or low 20s? That is some prediction. You basis for it appears to be TA. Did you listen to the JNPR conference call?
Unless their business gets much worse (won't know until the earnings cc) than it is right now, I don't see how your predictions can come true. With only 2 big players controlling the market...Cisco and JNPR...business getting very unprofitable is unlikely.
Nortel, Lucent, Alcatel, Sycamore, Ciena are the ones facing the most competitive challenges. The optical networkers are going to have a tough time in business.
Recall that I recommended not going long this stock. When you were trading it, I suggested that you go long Cisco (19-20) and short JNPR (50s).
The good thing about TA is that it gets you out quicker. I recall you stated that you were to sell it if it hit 50.
I am still concerned about Ciena. High growth, high PE stocks that low sales levels are vulnerable. Optical networkers more than the likes of JNPR.
JNPR should stabilize soon, imho.
Does not change my positive near term outlook on the Nasdaq...yet.
I don't think this is the Nasdaq of late last year or early this year. IMHO, it won't collapse in the near term at the very least...not unless masses embrace technology stocks the way they did in early 2000....but that means the Nasdaq would get to very high levels first before the collapse. I would have to see Nasdaq 3000 before I would make a prediction of a big decline.
JNPR getting to the teens implies that the Nasdaq should be well below 2000. I don't see that as a possibility near term.
JMHO.
btw--the only networker stock that I long is Cisco...small position. Don't like the group at all but warming up to Nortel...I don't think it can hit 0, can it?<g> |
