Eric,
The trend has not yet reversed for CDMA as far as YOY growth is concerned
I agree that it hasn't shown clear reversal, but the numbers are more encouraging than in the recent past.
As one example, this is the first time in four years that the quarter ending in March showed a net sequential increase in new CDMA subscribers. It's a small increase (6%), but compared to earlier large decreases of 60%, 21% and 20% in that quarter, it's good news. The sequential increase might be due to bad numbers in the previous quarter but not entirely; calendar Q4 experienced an 86% sequential increase (the highest of the last three years) yet that quarter had only a 5% year-over-year increase (the lowest of the last three years).
Another example is that the number of net new subscribers increased 39% compared to the year-earlier figure. In the same period of 1999 the increase was 287% and last year it dropped to 30%. The higher increase in new subscribers this time is encouraging.
Last, the declining rate of growth in total subs compared to year-earlier subscriber count continues to decline at a smaller and smaller rate. The details for each of the quarterly growth beginning in the quarter ending March 1999 are as follows: 209%, 177%, 157%, 118%, 101%, 96%, 73%, 61% and 58%. As you can see, the most recent decline is only 5% and that's significantly less than the rate of decline in any of the earlier 7 comparisons since the growth began declining.
--Mike Buckley |
