Larry, even your mechanical approach, which is wrong, caught the 87, 90 and 200 bears, 3 out of 5 of your indicator. The problem with your graph is that you should graph according to the naz highest point, and when three months elapsed without that point being breached, youl'll get a more accurate picture. Your picture takes calendar quarter, not <max,min> quarters. By the way, the 1992 and 1994 events, would have been worth staying out of as well as the last semi downturns, I did, and it was murder for the semis, with socks like CYMI reaching the single digit, and amat relative valuation to sales being less than half of what it is now. It was real bear in the semi's.
Zeev |
