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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1388)6/11/2001 2:34:47 AM
From: ms.smartest.person  Read Replies (1) of 2248
 
US economy on thin ice: Blue Chip poll

WASHINGTON
THE US economy should manage to escape a full-blown recession but its growth is meagre and it is “skating on thin ice”, the closely-watched Blue Chip survey of economists said yesterday.

“A large majority of our panel members continue to believe the US economy will manage to avoid suffering even one quarter of negative GDP (gross domestic product) growth, much less the two consecutive quarters that traditionally define a recession,” Blue Chip Economic Indicators said in its latest monthly poll.

“But faith in that favourable outcome is being tested on an almost daily basis as one indicator after another signals that activity in many key sectors of the economy continues to deteriorate,” it added.

Blue Chip said in the most recent consensus forecast, private economists slashed its projections on second-quarter economic growth to 1 per cent from 1.5 per cent in the survey a month ago.

They predicted growth would accelerate to 2.1 per cent in the third quarter and 3 per cent in the fourth — rates that experts believe would still leave the economy with plenty of slack.

Economists expected that the economy would get some help from the Fed’s sharp interest rate reductions, plus the recently enacted tax-cut package that gives American households lump-sum rebate checks of up to $600, with a gradual lowering of income-tax rates.

“But the economy currently appears to be skating on thin ice,” Blue Chip said. The survey cited the dismal data on the factory sector and the May US employment statistics.

The government said the jobless rate fell to 4.4 per cent in May from 4.5 per cent in April. The economy shed 19,000 jobs in May. (Reuters)

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