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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 225.21

-13.1%

Jan 8 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jim Rathmann who wrote (383)	6/14/1997 9:52:00 AM
From: Chris Fischer	of 12623

Jim Why shouldn't the stock be at $63 at the end of the year (other than Tom's well-worn reasons). Everyone knows that there will be lots more shares on the market after the lockup, and this has already been factored into the price. CIEN will once again easily beat the forecasts for Q3, as they did in Q2. Their biggest problem is deciding which orders to take, given that they are just ramping up production. Not so long ago there were people on this thread suggesting that AT&T looking at CIEN gear would be like Microsoft incorporating Netscape's web browser. Well, lookee here. Field trial, which will certainly establish CIEN as an alternative vendor from LU. Once in a while you have to have some faith that something truly market-changing is emerging from its cradle - which is what is happening with DWDM now. The best comparison is the heyday years of microwave transmission in the late 60's/early 70's. There will be ups and downs with this stock until more shares are on the market, but it's a real winner. - Chris

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