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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.44+1.6%Nov 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (78410)6/11/2001 12:11:56 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
>>What makes you think it will drop?

Three reasons:

1. Consumer satiation. In the 90s home ownership among US households rose from 64% to 67%, after being stagnant around 64% during the previous decade. PC ownership rose from 22% to 58%. Cell phones from 2 to 39%. Camcorders from 11% to 40%. Cars from 72% to 76%. Age of cars on the road is at generation lows.

2. Record ratio of debt service to disposable income.

3. Rising unemployment. This combined with 1 and 2 is a lethal mix for consumer spending.
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