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Pastimes : The California Energy Crisis - Information & Forum
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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (427)6/11/2001 3:38:59 PM
From: Don Knowlton  Read Replies (1) of 1715
 
Ray,

"BTW, did you happen to see the news today that ENE has now decided that they want to start commodity trading in semiconductors? They're going to start with DRAMs. This should do wonders for industry price stability and sensible planning among the semiconductor manufacturers."

Ray, I have been in semiconductor memory marketing for over 15 years. There was a DRAM futures market in Asia (Japan?) in the 1980s. It did not do much to stabilize DRAM pricing if my memory serves me. I don't know if that market still exists. They used to have futures price quotes in the Asian newspapers.

I've come to the conclusion that any industry with high capital costs, high fixed costs, and low variable costs will be highly cyclical. A futures market could smooth things a little, but the peaks and valleys are still huge.

Don
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