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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING/SWINGTRADING STOCKS with INTRADAY INVESTMENTS
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To: - who wrote (236)6/11/2001 5:39:31 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (1) of 565
 
Steve,

AWE is heading down the toilet. The question is when. They have chosen a "migration" path that is suicidal. There is no possibility that they can compete on a cost basis against the cdma camp of sprint and VZ, nor the GSM camp now led by DT (after the VSTR purchase) and not even the hybrid cingular.

In the end, AWE will only be valued by the spectrum they own.

The rest of T is in even worse shape.

However, what T is really worth is irrelevant since I am not interested in investing (by investing, I usually mean long and reasonably long term) in any of the T related companies. I am interested in riding the coat tail of what the big boys may have planned, hoping to pick up a few bucks in the process.

My guess is that T may pop before its final demise. Ideally, that would involve a short term long followed by a short. Of course, this is much easier said than done.

Another stock in similar situation is DT. They issued 1 billion shares for the purchase of VSTR, just completed. Hutchison and Sonera combined received about a quarter of those shares and are apparently restricted. The lock up period expires September 1, at which time, I think about 100 million of those shares can be sold.

VSTR shareholders benefited royally from the DT purchase. I seriously doubt if they will hold on for long. I suspect there are orchestrated attempts to dump these shares now but volume shows no sign of anything unusual. Fundamentally, DT is in sad shape.

What is your take, again, from TA perspective?

Ramsey
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