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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17564)	6/11/2001 9:52:46 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative	Read Replies (1) of 30051

Zeev...OT You wrote; "It takes time for excess money to put pressure on goods, particularly when those goods are in abundant supply (over capacity). Still, the recent inflation rate at 3.3% is twice what it was at the through few years back. Part of my mid 2002 (or later) bear market is assuming that the fed will have to start and tighten to reign in inflation, but they will have to do it not when the GDP is growing at 4% plus, but an anemic 2.5% to 3%, bringing on a real recession which will find not just corporations tightening, as is the case now, but the consumer batting down the hatches." ------------- Can one assume that should this be the scenario then the housing market should stay strong into mid 2002? There has been a huge Bull run in the real estate market the past few years the likes of which remind me of the late 80's. Given the financial markets meltdown last year as oppose to the real estate market's explosive upward climb I wonder if this tight reign on inflation via the Fed will keep the trend alive until early to mid 2002.

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