| The importance of 2000, its pyschological aura, is demonstrated not least by the fact that at critical moments the COMPX has gapped virtually right to it - as though actually going through a main session approach would be too painful to endure for the injured parties, making quick and painless capitulation preferable. On the way down, the bulls disappeared for 40 pts to 2001. On the way up, the bears lost control at 1941 and couldn't re-engage until 2005. The "dip" you describe to 2000.83 (which I recall as a moment of rather high trading tension and release) tends to confirm gap support. Next time, should bears retain control over succeeding days, things may be less blitzkrieg, more urban warfare, and how dramatic the reaction to an actual failure at 2000 would be seems uncertain (it may be a "first time as tragedy, second time as farce" situation, which some may recognize as appropriate to a downside target of 1870). In any event, with the violated uptrendline having succeeded as resistance to last week's snapback, and amidst a number of other negative if not yet conclusive indications, now does seem like a realistic moment to start drafting downside targets with more precision. |
