Hooboy! A must read for every QCOM investor. Zingers everywhere which is unusual for a consulting firm. The claimed neutrality clearly favors CDMA 2000. Let the fun begin. Sparks should soon fly!
Clear discussion of real issues regarding data speed, integration, roaming and billing, lack of tested equipment, timeframes, as well as cost effectiveness of options.
CDMA2000 1X OFFERS PROMISING STORY FOR TDMA OPERATORS
TO CONSIDER, ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS BY THE SHOSTECK GROUP
WHEATON, MARYLAND, JUNE 12, 2001.
The Shosteck Group (formerly Herschel
Shosteck Associates, Ltd.) has completed its analysis of the technology
alternatives and migration paths facing TDMA/IS-136 operators. This
analysis, a White Paper entitled GSM OR CDMA: THE COMMERCIAL AND
TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES FOR TDMA OPERATORS, has been published by
the CDMA Development Group (CDG). The Shosteck Group served as strategic
advisors to the CDG for the project.
"The challenges facing TDMA operators are daunting," stated Dr. Herschel
Shosteck, President and Chairman of The Shosteck Group, an international
telecommunications consultancy.
"In our analysis we identify the possible challenges that TDMA operators
may face in deploying GSM and the possible advantages that cdma2000 1X may
offer. Based on these possible advantages, TDMA/IS-136 network operators
may find it worthwhile to consider cdmaOne/CDMA2000 1X as a migration
path," he continued.
The firm's analysis centers on identifying implementation challenges that
may hinder that migration. Some of these challenges include handset
availability, handset prices, and technology and commercial challenges
associated with GSM 800, GPRS, EDGE and UMTS (W-CDMA).
Additionally, the firm warns network operators and vendors against
focusing on high data rates.
"The issue is not high data rates, but profitable data rates," stated Jane
Zweig, Chief Executive Officer of the Shosteck Group. "Looked at in this
context -- for operators to choose or for vendors to promote --
technologies because of their ultimate speeds becomes self defeating."
The firm's analysis explores the many engineering challenges inherent in
deploying EDGE, and because of them, the possibility that EDGE may never
reach commercial fruition. Even if it should reach fruition, there is the
likelihood that some GSM operators will bypass it to migrate directly to
UMTS, the firm observes. This will seriously impact the opportunities for
TDMA operators who view EDGE as a cornerstone of migration strategy.
"There are two seldom discussed factors which emerge with regard to the
GSM alternative for TDMA operators," stated Dr. Shosteck. "The first of
these is the issue of crowding of the 800 MHz spectrum. No one in the
world has experience in deploying GSM at 800 MHz and in dealing with the
potential interference from different RF technologies. Good engineers
will overcome such interference. However, doing so will take time and
money."
"The second challenge is that of integrating the incompatible MAP
signaling used by GSM with the ANSI 41 signaling used by TDMA/IS-136.
Again, no one in the world has ever done this. It would be disingenuous
to think that it will prove an easy process," Dr. Shosteck continued.
A key focus of the analysis centers on handset and device availability.
The firm observes that historically the availability of handsets has
always lagged the deployment of infrastructure - a phenomenon that it
calls "the reality gap."
"If the availability of GSM 800 infrastructure is critical for the
transition plans of TDMA operators, the availability of GSM 800 handsets
is even more so," stated Ms. Zweig. "Without handsets, networks cannot
function. Idle networks strand operator investment."
"More likely than not, TDMA operators will require dual-mode/dual-band
handsets - enabling subscribers to hand-off from GSM to TDMA networks and
back again," she continued. "This provides subscribers with continuous
coverage. However, the reality gap raises the question of whether any
vendor can devote the resources to deliver GSM 800 handsets when it
promises them. This gap appears substantial. In 12 to 18 months, the
pressures on handset vendors to focus on GPRS, EDGE, and/or UMTS will be
greater than at present. In light of this, resources to produce an
initial multi-mode TDMA/GSM 800 handset will be more constrained than they
are now."
By comparison, the firm observes, handsets for CDMA2000 1X are in
production and being used on all three Korean networks. There are nine
different CDMA 2000 1X handset models available today. SK Telecom in
Korea expects this number to grow to 36 by the end of 2001. This is a
meaningful lead over GSM 800 for which models will not be available until
mid-to year-end 2002 at the earliest and, given the reality gap, plausibly
not until much later. This will put TDMA operators migrating to GSM at
disadvantage compared to those operators who will deploy CDMA2000 1X.
"Additionally, UMTS spectrum has not been licensed in the Americas. This
means that TDMA operators who choose GSM have no foreseeable migration
path to full 3G," stated Dr. Shosteck. "In contrast, CDMA2000 1X is
becoming available, is enabling 3G services on present spectrum, and is
providing capacity increases of 50 percent or more," he continued.
"GSM OR CDMA: THE COMMERCIAL AND TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES FOR
TDMA OPERATORS" is available in PDF format through the
CDMA Development Group (http://www.cdg.org)
For more information regarding the White Paper, contact Jane Zweig, Chief
Executive Officer, The Shosteck Group, Tel: 1+301 589 2259, email:
jzweig@shosteck.com
THE SHOSTECK GROUP is an international telecommunications consultancy
known for its strategic wireless seminars and special studies, and its
strategic market and competitive analyses. THE SHOSTECK GROUP provides
focused, in-depth market research and analysis for a broad range of
clients in the global cellular and wireless Internet markets.
shosteck.com |
