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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (47870)	6/12/2001 3:04:44 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Researcher warns of 'talking down' handset market with overly depressed forecasts Report predicts 21% growth in units to 491 million this year Semiconductor Business News (06/12/01 12:30 p.m. EST) TOKYO--A new market study released here today predicts that 491 million cellular-phone handsets will be shipped by the industry worldwide in 2001, an increase of 21% from 405 million last year. The report, written by the ARC Group, said the struggling handset business will get a needed boost in the third and fourth quarters of 2001 after weak conditions slowed growth in some regions during the first half of the year. The authors of the study noted that other analysts and handset vendors have varied greatly in their forecasts for cell-phone shipments, with some predicting as few as 350 million units being sold in 2001. The ARC Group warned that sharply lower forecasts carry "the risk of 'talking down the market' and could impact the medium-term outlook, in particular the production capacity of some component manufacturers." Chip makers serving the cell-phone industry have been hit hard by the 2001 downturn, causing many to scale back production plans. And today, Nokia Group in Finland lowered its own forecast for handset shipments to "very modest" growth in 2001, citing weakness in the U.S. market (see today's story). Two weeks ago, market researcher Dataquest Inc. in San Jose said the cell-phone industry could still reach 500 million units after end users purchased 96.7 million handsets in the first quarter (see May 31 story). Earlier this year Dataquest had cut back its forecast for unit shipments to 507 million handsets in 2001 from a previous estimate of 576 million. The ARC Group said many forecasts are now too low partly because analysts and vendors overestimated demand in 2000. The research group said it had forecasted 410 million units in 2000, while others continued to inflate their projections to 550 million handsets last year. ARC said its forecast in 2000 was called "pessimistic," and now it expects to be labeled as "optimistic" with its current projection of 491 million units in 2001. The ARC study--called "Future Mobile Handsets -- Worldwide Technology and Market Developments 2001-2006"--is being offered by Global Information Inc. in Japan.

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