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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 345.64-2.0%Feb 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (688)6/12/2001 9:39:49 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (2) of 95850
 
So would I be correct in assuming you see the advantage in trading the ranges on these stocks?

If I could buy semiconductor stocks at the right price I would be happy to hold them but not forever as opposed to many other groups of stocks. This is predicated on the fact that this is a cyclical industry. As an experiment I am going to post my buy and sell points on Cary's favorites among the semiconductor stocks. 

Stock Symbol Buy Price Trade Price
AMAT                   48              57
ASML                   23              27
KLAC                   49              62
NVLS                   46              58
ALTR                   23              30
LLTC                   46               57 
MXIM                   48              58
XYNX                   40              49


finance.yahoo.com

The nice thing about these stocks is that they will weather any further downturn. However since we do not know when we will see the actual upturn it might be advisable to trade such stocks within their ranges. These are my own buy/sell points based on the charts I am looking at today. As with any group of technology stocks these stocks will be effected by the overall strength in the NASDAQ and the SOX in particular. That being said if we assume we are in a trading range that is unlikely to collapse because of continued financial stimuli in the face of last year burst bubble.

Now I am going to make some assumptions.

I am going to assume there is little chance that the NASDAQ or SOX will decline substantially because investors are already afraid they missed the bottom. That is the GREED Factor. On the other side of the coin is the knowledge that keeps even long term investors awake at night because PE's are high now in the group. That would be the FEAR factor.

Between Fear and Greed there exists a 20% trading range on nearly every one of these stocks where plenty of money can be made. Most of these stocks are going to follow the trading of the SOX which to me still looks to be headed back to 575. In essence the SOX is in a 20% range as well. Obviously I am not likely to get the full 20% out of any of the stocks should I choose to trade one but 15% is very, very, very doable.

This is what I did on KLIC. Cary's favorite all look like better long term holds in case I am wrong. So I may trade one or more of these stocks. If so I will post my entries and exit points.

Don are you opposed to discussing semiconductor stocks outside of the semi equipment group on this thread?

Cary, thank you once again for your explanation as it concerns the lack of relationship between EMS companies and semi capital equipment company.

As I said I am more interested in trading stocks than understanding everything about the companies themselves. That being said I looked over your stock picks and they do look tremendous to me at the right buy points.

RtS
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