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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: LLCF who wrote (108392)6/12/2001 10:40:25 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
The 14.29% number comes straight from the Fed estimate of DebtService to disposable income estimate. This is Consumer Credit + Mortgage Debt.

federalreserve.gov

This is quite different from the other numbers- that of total consumer credit outstanding (excluding mortgages) to disposable income.

From the article you linked

Economists see these trouble signs:

• Mortgage delinquencies have surged to their highest level since 1992, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which said that 4.54% of mortgage loans were at least 30 days overdue in the fourth quarter of 2000. The problem is especially acute among lower-income borrowers: The delinquency rate for FHA mortgages shot up to 10.46

In fact, the conventional deliquency rate has declined from 5% in 1980 to as low as 4.1% in 1999 (1998 was 4.4%) so I don't see the uptick as ominous. FHA run much higher, typically 8%+, so 10% might be newsworthy. Src: Table 814
census.gov

• Personal bankruptcy filings rose to an annual rate of more than 1.4 million in the first quarter, after averaging about 1.2 million a year throughout 2000, according to figures from Economy.com

200k? Is that statistically significant? Is it a rush to file before pending legislation changes recently discussed?
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