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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 330.38-4.4%4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (691)6/12/2001 11:42:03 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95863
 
RE: "I am going to assume there is little chance that the NASDAQ or SOX will decline substantially because investors are already afraid they missed the bottom. and ...PE's are high now in the group."

Everyone seems to be ignoring the Lucent manager who said that the telecom business might stay down for 12 to 18 months. If telecom business stays down, chip business stays down, and semi-equip business heads towards zero. In this scenario, investors will eventually realize that they did not miss the bottom and PE's will be even higher for chips and E will turn negative for semi-equips. What is the probability for this scenario? It was supposed to decrease as the year went on, but it seems to be increasing. The malaise has spread to Europe and, recently, reports indicate to Asia and South America.

Among my favorites LLTC and MXIM have the least downside business risk and AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS the most.
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