Today was Wave B in the correction to 1975-2020. Beware.
What's up? I just joined Silicon Investor, and have been lurking for a while, and finally decided to get the premium membership.
I post all over the Yahoo Message Boards, esp. the BRCD message boards giving my technical analysis (have been pretty accurate) using the Elliott Wave Principle, Fibonacci and only rarely using other indicators like MACD, but I emphasize Elliott Wave, chart formations like triangles, head and shoulders, etc, and Fibonacci. I'm glad I'm finally in the company of real deal traders instead of annoying mindless emotional shorts and hypsters on those wild boards.
Let's get to business. Here are my opinions..
Anyway, it looks like the NASDAQ is in a final Wave 2 zizag move down to correct Wave 1 of the first bullish wave (from 1619 to 2328). A 5-3-5 wave it looks like. The first 5 waves corrected (Wave A) from 2328 to 2077 (Wave 2 corrections 75%-80% of the time are at least .500 to .618 retracements, and 2077 was a measly .333/.382), than we got the Wave B bounce, on light unconvincing volume from 2077 to 2264, and we're now in Wave C, which might be swift and violent, maybe even undercutting 2000 to 1974 (.500 Fibonacci retrace of 1619 to 2328). The action today appears to be Wave B of the bigger Wave C. Why do I say this? Because we cut right through the .618 Fib retracement of 2077-2264 like butter to 2105, and even though we got a nice 79-80 point bounce off the lows, it was barely a .500 fib retrace of 2264 - 2105. That's a Wave B. And Wave C could be completed this week and shocking fashion to 1975, but a violent bounce could occur if it touches that level. There's too much complacency.
CNBC turned into hypsters with feelings of invinciblity today (Jim Cramer especially, Mr. ALCOA).
One chart I've been looking at is the Nikkei, and the Nikkei has been cutting through crucial support levels, and the NASDAQ may not be far behind.
I think the max pain for this week is 1975, so I've gone short after being long during the Wave B bounce to 2264.
Charts of note:
JNPR has one brutal looking chart, and the bounce today, although pretty decent was not even close to reaching a .333 fib retrace. The close looked like it was on the verge of forming a head and shoulders, and we've only got 3 waves of 5 waves. There's more downside, potentially to the 23-25 range.
I'm a big fan of BRCD, short and long, and it appears that today it had a double top formation (47.99 and 47.87), it could drop as low as 40.35 this week.
Good luck this week.
Ted Aguhob
www.gem-x.org |
