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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Chris who started this subject	6/13/2001 6:54:16 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) of 52237

INDEX UPDATE ------------------- I always wonder why so many make strong long-term TA predictions, whether bullish or bearish, like the DOW above 12,000 next year or 1000 on the NAZ. The reason it bothers me is that I strongly believe that sort of prediction is so hard whereby the best level of probability is only slightly above flipping a coin(62%) and where most would be wrong. Im not talking about short-term predictions, where the probability can get significantly higher - I talking about the obnoxious long-term predictions where one is so firm on his/her position, leaving no room for error or a sense of humility. My position on long-term predictions, specificly using TA, is that the highest probability of calling it correctly is no higher than 62% which is with the best pronostigators. My guess is that the average good prognostigators is way under 50%. As I have mentioned several times in the past, I am aware of probability studies which implies that the highest level achieveable is 62%. So when one is right on a big call, he or she gets the title of GURU. But how often is that person correct. A perfect example of this is RALPH Alcampora who I believe called the 1987 crash, but within the last few years has been basicly wrong. So why do so many look for the big call GURU. Another opinion I have about so-called GURU hunting is when one is on a streak of making correct calls, eventually they will get it wrong. Recently, I have been on a streak and I AM 100% SURE that I will get it wrong very soon. I take that back - Im 1000000000000000000000000% SURE!!!!!! So why do so many look for gurus and put so much faith in them. My point is DO YOUR OWN HOME WORK!!!!

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