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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (4061)6/13/2001 2:53:51 PM
From: Wayners  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
Manufacturer's can continue to work off the inventories and cut production and layoff workers, but economic growth will not resume until orders pick-up. I'd expect demand to pick up in response to very low component prices and/or low labor prices plus availability of money (a lot of companies are going to be hindered in this area by very high debt levels) and finally some optimism and confidence by the largest companies at the top of the food chain to actually start placing some orders. Favorite leading indicators to watch in a downturn: Durable Orders, Factory Orders, NAPM Index, Chicago Purchasing Managers and Philadelphia Fed. The other option is do Channel checks with specific comapany's distributors and suppliers--but who's going to give that information away for free?
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