Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (4894)	6/13/2001 3:10:53 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 74559

John, basically supercycle and secular are interchangeable terms. yes, a secular bull/bear contains several cyclical bull/bear markets. the definition of a supercycle bull (per Bronson) is a period during which stocks consistently outperform money market funds, and vice versa in a supercycle bear. essentially the supercycles in the stock market are correlated with the 'seasons' of the Kondratiev wave: the 'spring' (mild inflation, 1949 -66) and 'autumn' (disinflation, 1982 - 2000) periods coincide with supercycle bulls, and the 'summer' (high inflation, '66 - '82) and 'winter' (deflation, 1929 - '49) coincide with supercycle bears.

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