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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: craig crawford who wrote (108527)6/13/2001 4:35:27 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
that depends among other things on whether the inflation data remain well behaved. judging from the recent public spoutings by various voting FOMC members, there's currently NO unanimity on the need for further cuts. some seem concerned that the action taken so far may have gone too far already. and even if the all clear for further cuts in the form of tame inflation data comes, the coming cut may already be baked into prices. note that a recent study by Al Newman shows that whenever there are MORE than 4 rate cuts, the stock market's performance does NOT conform to the usual 'cuts mean it must go higher' formula anymore. this has apparently to do with the fact that such a large number of rate cuts reflects extreme economic weakness - and stock prices don't rise when earnings collapse. especially when they're already priced for more than perfection.
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