To Kent and All,
Well, it might have been the best week ever in history for the DJIA, and records were set for all exchanges, but not for the semi-equipment stocks. I did a little analysis on the 40 stocks carried by SI (SEMIS) of which FSI is a member.
I took the closing price of yesterday, 6/13, and compared it to the previous Friday's close of 6/6. Of the 40 stocks, 29 went down, four stayed the same, and 7 went up.
The 7 stocks that went up are: GIC, 14%; VECO, 13%; FUSN, 8%; CFMT, 3%; AMAT, 3%; BRKS, 2% and UTEK, 1%.
The four stocks that stayed the same are: PHTN, GSNX, NVLS and KLAC.
Some of the stocks that went down are: TRKN, 17%; TGAL, 15%; ASEC, 14%; KLIC, 14%; EGLS, 10%; ......, you get the picture. Actually, FSI at minus 3% was one of the better stocks.
Tegal (TGAL) is rated #2 out of 37 manufacturing stocks by Zack's and was down 15% for the week. It carries a "1" rating which is the highest possible. FSI on the other hand is rated 28 out of the same 37 manufacturing stocks and carries a "2.3" rating, down 3%.
For the semi-equipment stocks, unless you had GIC, VECO, and possibly FUSN in your portfolio, everyone would have been better off having their money in the bank or in T-Bills.
I don't know when it's going to turn-around for those of us who have money in FSI, but it may be awhile.
Incidently, GIC, the big gainer for the week has a Zack's ranking of "2.2", nearly identical to FSI.
Actually, I think the biggest determent to FSI moving up anytime soon is the relatively low earnings estimate for FY-98 of 0.83 cents per share. At Fridays closing price, FSI is selling for 17 times FY-98 earnings and 38 times FY-97 earnings. It is true, certain of the semi stocks are selling at higher multiples, but with only one or two exceptions, they have higher rankings as well.
Bottom line, I'm convinced at this point there will be very little price increase in FSI until the "perception" of the marketplace "raises" FY-98 earnings estimates. That in turn is going to be based on getting new orders. It has been very quiet in that department lately!!
Anyone out there feel the same way or have a different slant on the situation.
Regards,
Don W. |
