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Non-Tech : HOMEBASE (HBI)
HBI 6.4700.0%Dec 2 9:46 AM EST
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To: Yeoman2 who wrote (95)6/14/2001 1:18:45 AM
From: Gary105  Read Replies (2) of 99
 
Far less risk than when I originally posted as store conversion process is going smoothly, including recent grand opening of 17 H2H stores. No longer 10 bagger potential as number of stores being converted was scaled back. However still multibagger potential - but over time. In great geographical location - California. Not without risk - ultimately price depends on EPS which depends on sales. According to company report if it meets sales and margin goals it is projects to earn $0.30, $0.65, $0.95 in FY ending 1/03, 1/04, 1/05 based on per store sales of $17M, $19M, $21M respectively - my guess is breakeven at $15M/store and earn/lose about $0.15/share for every $1M/store delta from $15M/store.

Solid base being established in $3 range. I would not chase but buy during periodic downdrafts such as last Friday. I see this as potential double in a 12 - 18 months (this could happen much sooner based on technicals but not based on fundamentals) and more so in a few years as long as sales goals are met. If they are not there is a lot of downside. Actually sales of pilot stores drifted below targets before grand openings, but company attributed it to lack of advertising. Grand opening advertising appeared to have positive impact on existing pilot stores and additional conversions - but no firm numbers are in.

Personally I think they will make it. Technically the stock is showing a lot of strength. As you can see from the above I have a lot of interest. All imo - not an investment recommendation.
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