OK, post the dates, facts, cost of investment, and returns annualized over time. I have not invested in RT's since 1985,
so I personally don't go back that far. Nevertheless, what has been your annualized rate of return since 1985?
------------------- As you may have probably already guessed. I am big on a couple of points. One is facts and data. The other is work and effort. So that you can be absolutely and 100% sure the data in question is authentic. I think the best is for me to tell you exactly where you can get it. I don't want to be accused of making up numbers.
The information - data - you will need to find. (1) The price trading history for the trust unit. (a) In particular yearly high- low-close unit prices for each year going back to the first year in which the trust started. This can be found as I have found it in an annual publication that is put out by The Financial Post Data Group. It is entitled FP Dividends and Record and 10 year Price Range 2000 for the latest one. Same title (except for year) for the next few back years. Then prior to that in seperate books entitled FP Annual Dividend Record for one and for the other FP 10 year Price Range. This collection of materials goes all the way back to the early 1960's. It should be easily enough to find in any good library. I have bought my own copies each year since the early 80's. For my own research into developing my investment strategy. I'll have to discuss that strategy in a little detail afterwards. For info prior to the early 80's my local university library had the other further back ones. (b) next is weekly or daily trading data going back to the trusts beginnings. You can get this from online data retailers or from your own online discount broker. I use TD Waterhouse they sell weekly and daily data very cheaply ( I think you can get years worth of data for less than buck) . You may also be able to find this info for free from Yahoo or other but it is spotty and for some it may not be complete (2) The dividend history of the trust. Your in luck because the sources are the same as I mentioned above from the Financial Post DataGroup. Again from your local library. Now with this you have all the raw data you need to look at. Now with this part out of the way you will need some sort of strategy to follow. The strategy I use has come about by looking at the trading data of a large number of stocks. It entails the following --- using the weekly and yearly high low prices for in this case trusts and a little twisted linear regression analysis. My own little take on regression analysis. This type of analysis will give you an idea of how a particular stock or trust price should be doing at a given interval in time. In this case week and or year. With these perameters set you have a means of judging if the current price is trading in a high range or a low range. If the price is high you don't want to buy. If its low you do. Now this is a bit of a simplistic rendition it is a tad more complicated I hope you understand . Now you have all you need to do all the number crunching your heart desires. Do all the what if scenarios you like. Take a look at the end results.----------------------------Now as for my own personal return --- PGF.UN 37.14% annualized as at May 15 2001 (as at last income payout) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Second, how would these figures compare if you did not use the current PWI price,
---------------------------------- Sorry but its PGF.UN that I own as I stated quite clearly before. If you were particularly interested in that trust you now know where to get the data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
but instead used a price when NG
was 1/2 its current value? I ask this, because if the price of NG (and subsequent returns) are calculated after the next
downward movement, the rate of return would be far less.
------------------------ sorry but this makes no sense to me. The returns I calculated are for gas and oil prices at the times during the years 1985 to now. The price of both commodities has been both up and down several times during that said time. Going forward the prices of the commodities would again be up and down several times as well. As I stated in my previous post about the discussion I had with the person at misc.invest.canada. Where he complained about the payouts being tied to the commodity price. And the wild swings in the price of the commodity. I said then how did he explain that at a time when oil prices were moving to their lowest levels in decades and then recovering was the trust able to have its highest payouts in its history to its unitholders. The payouts to unitholders in these trusts is not solely dependent on the price of the commodity alone. You have to look at things like production ( increasing it if prices fall ) , forward selling ( to lock in higher prices to some future date ) , etc All in all just good management practises. --------------------------------------------------------
The discussion reminds me of those who touted Certicom at 100 as it moved to 120. It is now below 4 I believe. Twenty
years from now? Who knows. My time horizon (and my life) is not that long. Perhaps you will live another 50 years. If
you also own Japanese equities, you might need that time. I don't want to be caught in a two-decade decline.
---------------------------- but investing is no 100% guarantee for any stock. If you want a guarantee buy a CD or GIC or term deposit or leave your money in a savings account as was stated in a previous posting and be thankful for that return. Before you invest in a oil and gas royalty trust you have to ask yourself what about the commodity itself.? The way I look at it is. One, oil and gas are prime energy sources. Two, there is no realistic alternative. Its not like cars and industry will run on water any time soon The oil industry ,hell the world, has many trillions of dollars invested in it they'll keep pumping and we will keep using till the last drop. Three, they are a dwindling supply. Oil and gas take millions of years to form. Once its taken out of the ground and burnt, thats it, its gone. Four , consumption keeps going up. Oil and gas are being used more and more as the population grows as the third world develops. Five , news of California power shortages -- nuff said.
Further, I would be far less critical if the recent dilution of PWI was for the purchase of reasonable investment that
added to earnings. As I understand it, the last dilution did nothing to advance earnings or increase reserves.
----------------- quite simply then if (IF) your understanding is correct then that is a problem unique to that trust. And is a problem with its management. They obviously aren't that good. If their not that good why would you want to own it. But thats your choice. ------------------------------------
Peter |
