INTRADAY INVESTMENTS STALK SHEET for Thursday, June 14 2001
The Semiconductor sector appeared poised for a reversal to the upside just two days ago, but now looks headed lower. Wednesday’s close in the SOX put it below both yesterday's close and the 20 period MA on the daily, with a close at the intraday lows. The overhead 20 MA will now likely serve as closest resistance in that sector. How quickly things can change in just a few days as the tech sector really fell apart today!
As noted in the daily trading report, the Networkers were hit hard, leaving the daily chart in an ominous pattern (but when they’re that obvious, they often don’t follow through). However, it’s hard to ignore the technical damage in the SOX, NWX, and GSO (software) sectors. A very broad swath of the core of the Nasdaq took a serious hit today.
Unlike the Semis, the Banking sector still remains poised for a potential reversal to the upside. Early in Wednesday’s session, the BKX sector good relative strength and upside momentum. However, broad market weakness which ensued later in the session due to a troubling Beige book report (and earthquake news hitting from Taiwan effecting the broad market) eventually caused the sector to lose its strength. Noteworthy, however, is the fact that the BKX sector held the opening price and intraday lows of Tuesday. This is interpreted as bullish, as the selling volume today did not cause the BKX to set new lows. We will be stalking the BKX sector on the long side if the market is stable on Thursday.
We’ll also be watching GE Thursday morning as rumors continue to pour in that GE’s $42B acquisition of Honeywell is in trouble with the Europeans. Intraday has just installed into our West coast trading offices an institutional-class, $5k/month newsfeed which we’ll be using to insure we miss NOTHING when it comes to news on a stock we’re about to trade. This feed is exceptionally FAST, and draws from every source available. Also, as announced today we are emailing out to all trader-members a very nice Excel spreadsheet map of the MASTER STALK LIST, organized by sector (and updated this evening to fine-tune the sectors, and add the alternative energy sector). Thanks to Gary Ziegler for the truly impressive color spreadsheet work! We suggest you print it out in color (Landscape mode) and keep it near your battle station. It will help you in interpreting the sector action, and in following along with our sector scanning. And finally, watch for our new support representative experts, “Steve-MBT”, and “Gary-MBT” from Terra Nova-MB to arrive in the room tomorrow (formally, Friday) to begin provide live, real-time RealTick III support as announced tonight via email.
We have many more of these innovations and enhancements in the works, which we’ll announce as they are rolled out. Intraday is going to continue to innovate regularly in the coming weeks and months - think you're going to like it! Our mission is to create a superior trading environment delivered to you by the internet, taking it to a new level that has not been seen before. That is our promise to you, our fellow member-traders!
Things are choppy and whippy - so stay nimble, keep the stops tight, and trade well!
Potential Longs:
SFA Scientific-Atlanta Long > 43.45, Telecom Hardware sector
Capitulating selling volume on Wednesday, preceded by four prior negative days, may indicate a short-term bottom in this stock. A bounce is likely to follow. Will look to go long above Wednesday’s close, with a stop at 42.50 area.
(no sector symbol for this sub-sector)
JPM J.P. Morgan Chase Long > 44.25, Banking sector
This stock showed a lot of relative strength and volume in Wednesday morning’s session, but eventually fell victim to the afternoon selling in the broad markets. However, it managed to only retrace about 75% of its gains intraday and still closed positive on the day. Should see follow-through upside action if the Dow is not too weak tomorrow.
$BKX.X
WFC Wells Fargo Long > 44.50, Banking sector
High volume selling on Wednesday after four consecutive down days, which brought this stock right down to the lower channel support of its downtrend line started in January. Just looking to play this one for a technical bounce once it trades above Wednesday’s close on strong volume.
$BKX.X
PVN Providian Long > 55.00, Banking sector
This stock attempted a reversal today, but couldn’t follow through due to the afternoon weakness in the Dow. We will look to go long once it trades above Wednesday’s open, which would put it in the upper one third of Wednesday’s highs, and above the 20 MA on 60 min. chart.
$BKX.X
FDRY Foundry Networks Long > 19.50, Networking sector
The first thing about this play is that we must realize that further weakness in the Networking sector (which we expect) could make this play a bit tricky. Nevertheless, we still like this setup. Held up very well during Wednesday’s selling, managing to hold on to 75% of Tuesday’s gains. Also 20 period MA on daily and 200 period MA on 60 min. as support beneath it.
$NWX.X
Potential Shorts:
SPY HOLDER, Short <124.00 (potential Swing Trade if market sells off Thursday).
The S&P 500 cash market is setting on an area of price support and may break through it Thursday or Friday. If it does and this market starts heading towards the April lows, let’s get short the SPY as a swing trade! The first objective will be to manage the stop to break even; the second to take part of the position off at our first profit target (122-123 area depending upon intraday action). If we can build up a profit cushion, this one could be taken overnight into Friday.
INTC Intel Corp. Short < 28.75, Semiconductor sector
Broke below 200 period MA on daily on Wednesday. Will look to short once it trades below the closing low of $29, which would also put it below the 40 period MA on daily. $SOX.X
AMCC Applied Micro Circuits Short < 16.50, Semiconductor sector
Will look to short once AMCC breaks below Tuesday’s low, which served as support today. Target on the downside is 15 if triggered.
$SOX.X
PMCS PMC-Sierra Short < 30.50, Semiconductor sector
This stock is in danger of breaking below a multi-month consolidation level if our alert gets triggered. Will look to short once support of 30.50 is breached.
$SOX.X
SEBL Siebel Systems Short < 43.00, Software sector
Wednesday’s selling took the stock stays below its 20 period MA on the daily, closing at its low of the day. Starting look like Tuesday’s tech rally was a fakeout! Will look to short once SEBL trades below support below 43.
$GSO.X
MERQ Mercury Interactive Short < 57.80, Software sector
High selling volume in this stock on Wednesday erased all of Tuesday’s gains and took it down to just above support in the 58 – 59 range. If this drops below 58, we will look to short for a multi-point profit.
$GSO.X
JNPR Juniper Networks Short < 32.90, Networking sector
Once JNPR breaks below 33.05, there is not any more support until April’s lows. Would not be surprised to see this trade down to 30 on a break below 33. Need to keep a tight stop on this one though because we are at a support level here and it could reverse quickly. Higher risk play.
$NWX.X
IDPH Idec Pharmaceuticals Short < 67.80, Biotech sector
Wednesday’s candlestick shows that the reversal that started on Tuesday may be short-lived, as it attempted to rally on Wednesday, but failed and ended up closing near the low of its intraday range. We will look to short on a drop below Tuesday’s close. Profit potential is pretty high if alert gets triggered.
$BTK.X
GILD Gilead Short < 49.75, Biotech sector
Same comments and setup as IDPH on stalk sheet.
$BTK.X
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