Liquidity, and that is what they are doing now and why I am bullish for early next year. That will be helped by a trough in the SOX, but that same liquidity is going to come back at us, since we may have fear (even though not real) of inflation coming in later next year. The excess liquidity together with the "need" to once more serve as the "locomotive" of the world economy, may cause our balance of payments to go beyond the 4%-5% of GDP which could signal a run on the dollar (and George will be happy, since then, finally, I can see gold breaching $300 for a nice move to the $350/$400, but no more), which coupled with a consumer recession late next year is going to get us back down by 2003 to lower lows than this year. At least this is the "broad view" at this time with many other details I cannot go into right now. Mind you, I still hold that we do not have and will not have a recession this year.
Zeev
In edit, we are going to bounce from Larry's 2078 for a little while so I deployed the quintet, will sell on a bounce to 2125 or so, I think, also got MERQ, IRF, IDPH and IMCL, same purposes. |
