"The Delusions of the Executive Suite Dept"
Ray, I was somewhat new to the sector then, but had shares in Infowave, a local company that Seybold follows, so I remember his outlook (no pun intended). Your observations are accurate.
As regards wireless (broadband) services, I think, more and more the service that must be captured is voice. If you are going to capture voice, in the context of ubiqiutous, always-on service, there are still tremendous hurdles (financial and technical) to be overcome. And until you can provide something like the reliability provided by POTS, it's not gonna fly.
And of course, any moves the players make to capture the voice market (ie., bypassing the CO) will be fought tooth and nail ny the incumbents.
All those studies, that predicted the rosy future of 3G and 4G - what the hell were they measuring? As late as a month ago, I was touting these same sort of reports, but after re-reading the "studies" on 3G (or the oldies on LMDS, or the new ones on BBFW) I've been re-born.
It's enough to make you wonder if there isn't some huge collusion - the analysts buy the "studies" (reports, whatever) pump the sector, and everyone's off to the races again.
Back to the point - elmat's " As long are there are ILECs there will never be broadband."
If broadband is going to include a voice component, I see what he means. Unless the incumbents decide to provide it themselves, we will probably be a-moulderin' in the grave before BB with voice happens, on anything but a spotty basis.
As an ex-union man, I recognize masterful obstruction when I see it. "So what, you say? The incumbents are protecting their profits!"
So do the union members - the problem is the incumbents hold the high ground. Everybody's a SIG these days. Welcome to the world of stillborn visions, touted by breathless marketing reports, "analysts" on Ecstacy, and penny-pinching capital markets, where a bucket of cold water awaits all applicants.
Regards,
Jim |
