A bottom for fiber or just a DCB?
I am sorry. But I am sticking by my guns. As I predicted in May would happen and have repeated many times throughout the first half of June, I believe we are moving toward a re-test of the April 4 lows. I am staying bearish until we have sufficiently tested. . . and are looking at the VIX above 32. But for now, IMO, next stop is 2000. . . on way to somewhere around 100 points of 1800. And that would satisfy me and turn me into a raging bull once more. . . when the volatility spikes past 35. [clear enough?]
As for when a particular stock has bottomed out, I am probably not the one to ask. . . but rather someone more familiar with that particular stock's trading patterns, short-interest and technical condition. I do agree that certain stocks will bounce AHEAD of the our reaching a bottom, so your effort is not in vane.
The recent downgrade of Corning and other "Specialty Fibre" or "High-End Fibre", is effecting the whole fiber sector, IMO. But when I think of the logic of that downgrade, it sounds quite contrived. Corning is expected to experience a few months of decreased demand.
In my opinion, when a company reaches the order saturation point. . . and is backlogged more than a year in advance. . . .as Corning is. . .a few months of decreased demand is perhaps the best thing that could happen to them. It gives them some breathing room, while trying to get caught up with last year's demand. Therefore, I believe that the ANALyst downgraders are more interested in buying GLW on-the-cheap than on directing investors toward making the most prudent decision with regard to buying or selling the stock.
So what else is new? >smirk<
Best wishes,
Rande Is |
