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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 74.59+0.3%Jan 23 9:30 AM EST
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To: MHA who wrote (53653)6/14/2001 6:56:27 PM
From: Stock Farmer  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
>>may even go under $10<<

I doubt it. Not this year anyway.

How many funds would have to dump for that to happen? Could the street allow the carnage if a big fund was forced out by a $10 & over rule?

There is a scenario which has the PTB keep this stock floating gradually downwards over a period of years. A so called "soft landing" scenario.

That would see CSCO end up primarily concentrated amongst the index funds (who have no choice but hold it) and in the brokerage holding accounts. When the capital management and pension dudes disappear as heavy hitters in the funds list you know the distribution is almost complete and then the bottom can be put in. But not until then.

This has got to be done carefully to avoid triggering a panic, so maybe 20% of a day's volume can be devoted to distribution. That would mean about 12M shares. If total distribution is about 3B shares then I make about 250 trading days to complete.

Against a backdrop of a possible 2'nd half recovery (growing dimmer, but it's been there), unlikely the clock on such a distribution would have been ticking for very long. That's why I think we could have another year in front of us minimum.

Haste makes waste.

Of course, the alternative scenario has business pick up in 1/2 Q 02 with a huge collective sigh of relief. In that case, we forget about this whole bear market and go back to the joy of making LTBH money hand over fist just by going to sleep at night.

Food for thought.

John.
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